India inventory market towers 245 occasions over Pakistan’s: A gulf too broad to disregard
Whereas India’s benchmark Nifty50 has slipped 1.4% for the reason that Operation Sindoor on Could 6–7, Pakistan’s KSE-100 has plunged almost 10% throughout the identical interval. Because the April 22 assault in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 26 vacationers, Pakistan’s benchmark index is down 13.5%, whereas the Nifty has declined simply 0.57%.
The divergent market reactions replicate a basic actuality: India’s inventory market is almost 245 occasions bigger than Pakistan’s and considerably extra resilient to geopolitical shocks.
India ranks among the many world’s high 5 fairness markets with a complete market capitalisation of round $5 trillion. Pakistan’s Karachi Inventory Change, by comparability, stands at simply $20.36 billion, in response to Bloomberg information.
Past measurement, India’s market additionally has larger depth. It hosts over 5,000 listed corporations, supported by strong participation from mutual funds, retail buyers, and systematic funding plans (SIPs). This home base helps take up volatility. Pakistan’s market, with simply over 500 listed corporations, is way extra sentiment-driven and illiquid—making it extra weak to sharp drawdowns throughout political instability.
India’s broader macroeconomic energy provides one other layer of resilience. The nation holds $688 billion in foreign exchange reserves, in comparison with Pakistan’s $15.25 billion. In the meantime, India’s GDP is projected to double from $2.1 trillion in 2015 to $4.27 trillion by 2025, in response to the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF).Nevertheless, Moody’s Rankings this week trimmed India’s GDP development forecast for 2025 to six.3%, down from 6.5%, citing rising international uncertainty and commerce restrictions. The company additionally flagged the escalating geopolitical tensions with Pakistan as a possible danger to development.Nonetheless, Moody’s expects India to rebound to six.5% development in 2026, following an estimated 6.7% growth in 2024. In its World Macro Outlook 2025–26, the company highlighted that companies and buyers globally are adjusting to shifting geopolitical dynamics—elevating prices and tempering growth plans.
On this setting, geopolitical dangers—notably in South Asia—stay a headwind. Nevertheless, the disparity in market responses reveals that whereas India will not be immune, it is much better geared up to climate the storm.
Nevertheless, the scores company has retained India’s development forecast at 6.5% for 2026, following an estimated 6.7% growth in 2024.
Additionally learn: Mutual fund SIP inflows hit document excessive of Rs 26,632 crore, up 3% in April
In its World Macro Outlook 2025-26 (Could Replace), Moody’s pointed to a broader international slowdown pushed by heightened US coverage uncertainty, commerce tensions, and monetary market volatility. The company famous that international buyers and companies are recalibrating their methods in response to shifting geopolitical dynamics, which is more likely to improve prices and weigh on funding and growth selections.
Geopolitical dangers, notably in South Asia, are rising as a possible drag on India’s development prospects. The current surge in India-Pakistan tensions has added to Moody’s checklist of issues.
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, solutions, views and opinions given by the consultants are their very own. These don’t signify the views of Financial Instances)
