The U.S. Open Has Develop into the Unpredictable Main

Something can occur on the U.S. Open, as evidenced by Novak Djokovic’s surprising first-round loss on Sunday night time.
Picture: Mike Stobe/Getty Photos

For the previous 20-plus years, males’s tennis has served up a number of awe and only a few shocks. A handful of gamers, beginning with the Large Three and persevering with with the “New Two,” have hogged the majors like kids tired of sharing their toys. For the reason that begin of 2004, this quintet has gained 78 of the 90 Grand Slam tournaments. As a fan, it’s been robust to complain concerning the top-heavy nature of the sport as a result of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Carlos Alcaraz, and Jannik Sinner had been and are shriek-inducing athletes with abilities that increase your idea of the doable. Nonetheless, the fun of the sudden is one in all sport’s nice joys, and there’s one thing deeply satisfying when an unproven participant finds a brand new gear and rides that type all the way in which to a serious title. I bear in mind being transfixed when Goran Ivanišević gained the one main of his profession at Wimbledon and scratching my head in bewilderment when Thomas Johansson took dwelling his lone slam on the Australian Open. However the expertise of watching an athlete break new floor has turn out to be vanishingly uncommon within the trendy males’s sport. The U.S. Open has turn out to be the one main tennis event that repeatedly meets this want.

The 4 tennis majors all have their very own personalities. The Australian Open, the so-called “joyful slam,” basks in sunshine and the pure pleasure of competitors. Roland Garros foregrounds the integrity of battle and persistence (typically in opposition to fickle crowds). Wimbledon emanates status and magnificence. The U.S. Open is the one main that cultivates a really rambunctious vitality. It’s the place followers as soon as showered the court docket with beer cans throughout a second-round match that includes John McEnroe, and the place a 39-year-old Jimmy Connors delighted raucous crowds throughout an exhilarating run to the semifinals. The occasion’s latest ritzification could have dulled the gang’s edginess a bit, however the on-court motion is extra risky than ever.

For the reason that begin of the 2004 season, males’s tennis has produced six onetime Grand Slam winners, a paltry quantity in comparison with the 14 males who gained a single slam from 1981 via 2003. 4 of these gamers — Juan Martin del Potro, Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem, and Daniil Medvedev — collected their solely piece of main championship {hardware} at Flushing Meadows; Gastón Gaudio and Alexander Zverev every gained a lone main on the French Open. On the ladies’s aspect, the image is much less lopsided; 5 girls have gained their solely slam on the Open since 2004 in comparison with 5 on the French Open, three at Wimbledon, and three on the Australian Open.

It wasn’t at all times like this. Federer gained 5 straight U.S. Open titles within the 2000s earlier than one-off winner Juan Martin del Potro broke his streak in a traditional 2009 ultimate. Stefan Edberg, Pete Sampras, and Patrick Rafter all went back-to-back in Flushing Meadows within the Nineteen Nineties, and Ivan Lendl made eight straight finals within the Nineteen Eighties. However no male participant has efficiently defended their title since Federer final did it in 2008; each different slam has seen a number of gamers defend their title over that very same interval. The Open has additionally thwarted two all-time greats of their makes an attempt at a selected type of immortality. In 2015, Serena Williams got here to New York having gained the season’s three earlier majors; the good cash had her finishing the quartet and capturing the calendar-year Grand Slam. As a substitute, she misplaced within the semifinals to Roberta Vinci, who’d by no means superior to a serious ultimate. Vinci misplaced that match to Flavia Pennetta; it was Pennetta’s one and solely Grand Slam title. Six years later, Djokovic got here to Flushing Meadows with an opportunity to win the calendar-year slam. He fell within the ultimate to Daniil Medvedev, who had by no means gained a serious title earlier than and hasn’t gained one other since.

Past these distinctive events, why are established champions much less prone to affirm their greatness on the exhausting courts of Flushing Meadows than they’re on the lawns of Wimbledon or the crimson clay of Roland Garros? The explanations could merely be bodily. The U.S. Open is the final main of the season. It comes at a degree within the tennis calendar when gamers are drained and sometimes battle to search out their prime type. It’s instantly preceded by the North American hard-court swing, a stretch of occasions scattered among the many United States, Canada, and Mexico the place contributors grind out matches on unforgiving exhausting courts in sweltering situations. It’s typically stated that clay is probably the most taxing floor due to the way in which it slows the ball down upon affect, thereby creating the situations for lengthy, lung-busting rallies. However after watching Djokovic filter his abdomen final month on the Cincinnati Open whereas struggling to deal with the summer time warmth, it’s exhausting to think about that any clay-court event is materially tougher than the hard-court occasions main as much as the U.S. Open. All of which is to say the U.S. Open features as a conflict of attrition as a lot as a crucible of talent, which makes it extra seemingly that somebody sudden will sneak via the draw and get their arms on the trophy.

The counter to this argument is that the U.S. Open has been the ultimate main of the 12 months for many years, and former generations additionally competed in it after accruing months of damage and tear. Nonetheless, there’s a prevailing sense that tennis is changing into much more bodily taxing. Gamers are stronger and fitter than ever (at the very least in the beginning of the 12 months), making matches ever extra intense. The schedules on the males’s and girls’s excursions are more and more crowded. A scarcity of constant situations — completely different occasions use different-sized balls — makes it tougher to regulate from event to event, and lots of gamers undergo the second half of the season as lesser variations of their regular selves.

You will get a way of this carnage simply by trying on the 2026 males’s subject. Sinner, the ATP’s present No. 1, is at dwelling with a knee harm. Djokovic, trying like a shadow of his outdated self, fell within the first spherical to Mariano Navone. Alcaraz, the defending champion, is competing in his first event since withdrawing from the Barcelona Open in April with a wrist harm. And although Alcaraz gained his first-round match in straight units, with Sinner and Djokovic out of the draw, the trail to the title on the lads’s aspect feels even much less formidable than it has lately. It’s like an NCAA basketball event with 4 questionable No. 1 seeds.

The ladies’s draw is anchored by two-time defending champion and present world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who comfortably gained her first-round match. She could seem to be the plain choose to win in 2026, however it’s price remembering that she has a 4-4 file in main finals and isn’t probably the most dependable front-runner. Earlier than Sabalenka went back-to-back in 2024 and 2025, no feminine participant had defended her title since Serena Williams in 2014. Maybe Jessica Pegula, an American who punches above her expertise degree with admirable aplomb, can harness the occasion’s chaotic spirit and win her first main.

In a method, the predictable chaos matches this occasion. In any case, isn’t New York the place lengthy pictures flock to see if they’ve what it takes to make it massive? The premier native sporting occasion ought to replicate the character of town itself. Martin Amis as soon as wrote that the challenges particular to the U.S. Open had been atmospheric: The group and enjoying situations had a method of conspiring to make life depressing for these on the court docket. These phrases ring true at the moment. The U.S. Open is loud, scorching, and humid. It’s an occasion that calls for a variety of those that enter it, and these days you’ll be able to by no means make sure who has it in them to rise to the event.