Roy Cooper Working for Senate in NC, Serving to Democrats
Potential senator Roy Cooper.
Photograph: Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Photos
There’s precisely one Republican-held U.S. Senate seat rated as a 2026 “toss-up” by the Cook dinner Political Report: that of retiring North Carolina senator Thom Tillis. Democrats bought some nice information this week when standard former two-term governor Roy Cooper introduced he’ll run for the seat. With Republicans prone to unite round Trump’s designated candidate, RNC chairman Michael Whatley, North Carolina is about for what ought to be an epic senatorial race through which Democrats have an actual and uncommon likelihood to flip a seat.
North Carolina has change into a extremely aggressive state at each degree; final 12 months, Trump carried it by simply over 3 % at the same time as Democrat Josh Stein gained the governorship, defeating Trump’s man, Mark Robinson, by 15 %. A bitterly divided North Carolina legislature is managed by the GOP, as is the North Carolina Supreme Court docket. Suffice it to say politics is tough within the Tar Heel State, and the midterm Senate conflict ought to be costly and cruel.
However in Cooper, Democrats have their splendid candidate. When he hit a two-term restrict as governor in 2016, he had been working for workplace for 30 years with out ever shedding. He served in each state legislative chambers and was lawyer common for 4 phrases earlier than his tenure as governor, typically working properly forward of the nationwide Democratic ticket. Usually thought of a centrist Democrat, he was on Kamala Harris’s preliminary quick checklist for the 2024 vice-presidential nomination however shortly withdrew from consideration. He’s bought a reasonably good eye for contests he can win. On the age of 68, he’s a bit lengthy within the tooth for any ambition to change into a freshman U.S. senator, however presumably he’s answering his celebration’s pressing name.
Cooper’s almost-certain general-election opponent provides fairly the distinction. At 57, Whatley has by no means run for public workplace, although he’s been within the background in lots of GOP campaigns on the state and nationwide ranges. His sole credential for the job he’s working for is the assist of Donald Trump, which ought to be sufficient to thrust back the various GOP elected officers who would in any other case run for Senate. Certainly, it’s usually assumed that had his former RNC co-chair Lara Trump chosen to run for this seat, the nomination would have been hers — however the president’s daughter-in-law had different fish to fry. Whatley might be a stolid party-line candidate in a race that would activate nationwide traits (usually damaging for the celebration controlling the White Home).
To be clear, even when Cooper snags Tillis’s seat, Democrats could have a tricky row to hoe in attempting to flip the Senate. The one different race for a GOP-held Senate seat that Cook dinner charges as aggressive is the Maine seat of five-term incumbent Susan Collins; her race is rated “Leans Republican,” largely as a result of she’s survived reelection challenges earlier than and likewise declined to vote towards Trump’s megabill. Trump could also be tempted to again a major challenger, however celebration leaders will virtually actually persuade him Collins is one of the best they will get from Maine, which has gone Democratic in each presidential election since 1988. However, the seat may drop like a ripe plum into Democratic fingers if Collins, who hasn’t formally introduced her plans, surprises everybody by retiring.
Taking Collins down and flipping North Carolina would nonetheless depart Democrats two seats in need of gaining management of the chamber and having the facility to disclaim Trump essential confirmations of Cupboard and judicial nominations (Vice-President J.D. Vance has the tie-breaking vote). There are not any different blue-state Republican Senate seats up in 2026. So flipping the chamber would imply at minimal one way or the other making two different red-state Senate races aggressive.
The map isn’t promising for Democrats, no less than on the floor. These are their finest prospects:
- IOWA: Senator Joni Ernst has had a really troublesome 12 months in 2025 and may even select to retire. However Democrats haven’t gained a Senate or gubernatorial race in Iowa since 2008, and Trump carried the state by 13 factors final 12 months.
- TEXAS: Republican senator John Cornyn is in a really robust and fractious major struggle with scandal-plagued mega-MAGA lawyer common Ken Paxton. However Texas Democrats have been disappointing their troops and their nationwide donors with underwhelming performances in statewide races because the days of Ann Richards and Lloyd Bentsen, and seem to have misplaced a lot of floor amongst Latino voters within the state in 2024.
- OHIO: Making a severe problem to Ohio’s appointed Republican senator, John Husted, would seem to rely virtually completely on former senator Sherrod Brown trying a comeback. However Brown (who might be 73 in 2026) could give it a move or run for governor.
- NEBRASKA: There’s a buzz across the candidacy of impartial Dan Osborn, who threw a scare into Republican Deb Fischer in 2024 and is working towards her colleague Pete Ricketts in 2026. However Ricketts, a former governor, is a much-better-known commodity in Nebraska than Fischer and has private cash to burn. It’s additionally possible that if Osborn one way or the other wins and management of the Senate will depend on him, he’ll be the thing of a high-stakes competitors for his allegiance that Democrats gained’t essentially win.
That provides as much as quite a lot of iffiness for Democrats hoping to flip the Senate. And that’s even earlier than you issue within the 4 Democratic-held seats (in Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota) that might be challenged in aggressive races. It is going to require quite a lot of ability and luck (and possibly a really robust anti–White Home midterm wave) to remove John Thune’s gavel and deny J.D. Vance his occasional moments of relevance.
