Ken Paxton May Be the GOP’s Graham Platner

Hassle for Republicans deep within the coronary heart of Texas.
Picture: Smiley N. Pool/The Dallas Morning Information/Getty Photographs

It’s at all times been a little bit of a attain for Democrats to ponder profitable management of the U.S. Senate in 2026, given a panorama closely tilted to the GOP. Republicans have a three-seat majority that’s functionally 4 seats due to Vice-President J.D. Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Of the 9 Senate races rated as aggressive by the Prepare dinner Political Report, nonetheless, seven are in states Donald Trump carried in 2024, and one other seat is held by highly effective Republican incumbent Susan Collins. Of the seven Trump states with aggressive Senate races, furthermore, 5 (Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas) are in states Trump has carried thrice, and he carried 4 (all however North Carolina) most just lately by double-digit share margins. These are crimson states. That is why the implosion of Graham Platner’s candidacy in Maine (one of many two blue states with aggressive Senate races) was such an enormous deal. For some time there, the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket had Democrats as favorites to flip the Senate, however Platner’s troubles put Republicans again within the lead for Senate management, the place they continue to be.

It’s starting to appear to be Platner’s substitute, Troy Jackson, could be a aggressive challenger to Collins, and past that, there are sufficient susceptible GOP seats to make a Senate flip a minimum of theoretically attainable, even with out Maine. However what actually should cheer Democrats is that Republicans have their very own downside candidate who may blow what should be a win in November: Texas Lawyer Common Ken Paxton.

As you might recall, Paxton (helped by a late Trump endorsement) trounced four-term incumbent John Cornyn in a Might runoff after denying him a majority within the first spherical in March. This was an astonishing growth that illustrated the extent to which MAGA extremism has taken over the Texas GOP. Cornyn was a distinguished and fairly conservative Republican who loved an enormous monetary benefit over the challenger. And Paxton’s points went far past cash: The person is a scandal magnet of the best order, having been credibly accused of serial corruption and marital infidelity. Workforce Cornyn pounded him relentlessly for his sins, actual and perceived. And the incumbent’s unimaginable fundraising on this race was tangibly fed by fears that Paxton wasn’t electable with out much more cash than Cornyn threw at him for months and months.

In the meantime, Democratic state legislator James Talarico gained a shut major battle in opposition to Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett with a hypercompetent marketing campaign operation and a message that was half-populist, half-centrist, and all Texan. Talarico is, amongst different issues, a liberal Protestant seminarian who’s snug speaking about his religion in a manner that’s uncommon for Democrats today, which is why Republicans have cherry-picked some eyebrow-raising theological feedback that sound heretical to the conservative evangelicals who make up the Texas GOP base. However the GOP-Paxton effort to demonize Talarico doesn’t appear to have labored in addition to they hoped. Most general-election polling confirmed a dead-even race till the most up-to-date survey of doubtless voters from Texas Public Opinion Analysis, taken from July 15 to 17:

The takeaway: Democrat James Talarico (45%) leads Republican Ken Paxton (40%) by 5 factors within the U.S. Senate race, a 2 level improve from TPOR’s post-runoff ballot in Might. Talarico continues to submit sturdy margins with voters who self-identify as reasonable (+34) and unbiased (+20) …

Talarico holds one of the best statewide web favorability ranking of any [Texas political] determine we examined (+12) whereas Paxton holds the worst (-13).

Whereas Paxton largely talks about Talarico, Talarico largely talks about affordability, which is an excellent concept in 2026. After the prolonged pounding Cornyn gave Paxton over his ethics points, the Democrat barely has to say it, and Paxton himself, in fact, consistently reinforces his far-right views. What actually stands out, nonetheless, is that it’s an uneven battle at this level when it comes to the assets to hold the struggle to the persuadable citizens, because the Texas Tribune stories:

[Talarico] raised a staggering $30 million from April by means of June, his marketing campaign introduced Wednesday — greater than triple the quantity introduced in by his Republican opponent, Lawyer Common Ken Paxton.

The haul is a file complete for a U.S. Senate candidate within the second quarter of an election 12 months, Talarico’s marketing campaign stated, noting he has now raised greater than $70 million from over 1.5 million donations, together with 780,000 particular person contributors, since launching his bid in September.

Worse but for Paxton, Republican fundraisers don’t appear significantly taken with coming to his rescue, the New York Instances notes:

Mr. Paxton finds himself in a singular state of affairs amongst Senate candidates, in keeping with interviews with a dozen Republicans with ties to his marketing campaign. Republican donors nonetheless maintain grudges from a bruising major. The state, with its 18-plus tv markets, is an epically costly setting. And his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, has proved to be a very sturdy fund-raiser.

In keeping with the Instances, two tremendous PACs with huge treasures, the Senate Management Fund and MAGA, Inc., are “not so secretly hoping that the opposite one swoops in to spice up Mr. Paxton with tens of hundreds of thousands in spending … Neither group has reached for its pockets but.”

It’s true, in fact, that Paxton bludgeoned Cornyn regardless of being overwhelmingly outgunned financially, however that was in a GOP major by which MAGA road cred was value rather a lot. That’s much less true in a normal election at a time when Donald Trump’s job-approval rankings are underwater, together with in Texas.

Resentment of Paxton by Republicans who’re anticipated to avoid wasting him may turn out to be persistent and poisonous and even make this a race many within the GOP won’t thoughts dropping, all else being equal. Perhaps Paxton will pull it out, however at this level, he’s in peril of changing into the Platner of the GOP Senate subject, a candidate with simply too many issues to beat. Nobody, to be clear, is accusing the fiery Texas Republican of committing sexual assault, however his character and beliefs are presents that carry on giving to Democrats.

This submit has been up to date.