$100,000 H-1B visa charge amongst 7 key elements that can steer D-Road this week

Indian equities closed larger for the third straight week, supported by optimistic cues from each home and world markets. After a subdued begin, benchmark indices gained floor by way of a lot of the week, although profit-booking within the remaining session trimmed some good points. The Nifty and Sensex ended almost 1% larger, at 25,327 and 82,626, respectively.

Sentiment was buoyed by renewed optimism over the resumption of India-US commerce talks and the US Federal Reserve’s first price minimize of 2025. Constructive spillover from just lately introduced GST reforms continued to assist consumption-linked sectors, whereas Crisil’s forecast of softer FY26 inflation at 3.2% bolstered expectations of additional RBI coverage easing later this 12 months.

Positive aspects, nonetheless, have been partially tempered by a combined development in overseas institutional investor (FII) flows.

Components which are prone to impression motion when markets reopen this week:
1) H-1B visa charge

Markets will react this week to US President Trump’s government order imposing an annual $100,000 charge on H-1B visas, introduced late Friday.

2) India-US commerce deal

Any updates on the India–US commerce negotiations can even be carefully monitored. Export-driven sectors are already beneath tariff-related pressures, and the visa charge might additional weigh on IT providers exporters at a delicate time for commerce discussions.

3) Financial information

On the home entrance, HSBC’s Composite, Manufacturing, and Companies PMI flash estimates for September are scheduled for launch on September 23, adopted by banking information on mortgage and deposit progress, and overseas alternate reserves on September 26.

4) US market efficiency

Globally, buyers will monitor US market traits within the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s price minimize.

5) Technical elements

The market undertone stays firmly optimistic, with any dip or consolidation probably wholesome for the following leg of the rally.

“On this setup, the 25,200–25,100 zone (breakout stage) now acts as robust assist. On the flip facet, the 25,450–25,500 band, coinciding with trendline resistance, is the rapid hurdle, adopted by the June swing excessive at 25,670,” mentioned Rajesh Bhosale, Fairness Technical Analyst, Angel One.

“A decisive breakout past this zone would open the trail in direction of new all-time highs. Contemplating overbought situations and proximity to key resistance, a short-term consolidation with a optimistic bias is probably going,” he added.

6) FII Flows

Overseas institutional buyers (FIIs) have largely been web sellers or inactive, reflecting warning amid foreign money volatility and world uncertainty. Home institutional buyers (DIIs), nonetheless, have been regular consumers, supporting market stability amid FII outflows. This divergence suggests home buyers are cushioning the market whereas FIIs await clearer triggers or improved foreign money situations earlier than resuming bigger investments.

7) Foreign money motion

The strengthening US greenback in opposition to the Indian rupee is preserving FIIs cautious. Because the begin of the present monetary 12 months, the greenback has appreciated almost 3% in opposition to the rupee.

(Disclaimer: Suggestions, ideas, views, and opinions given by the consultants are their very own. These don’t symbolize the views of The Financial Instances)