Nomura sees good instances forward for Indian metal gamers, picks JSW Metal and Jindal Metal as prime bets

Nomura has reiterated its bullish stance on India’s metal sector, citing sturdy home demand and supportive world cues, and named JSW Metal and Jindal Metal as its prime picks. The brokerage raised its goal worth on JSW Metal to Rs 1,300 from Rs 1,220 and on Jindal Metal to Rs 1,150 from Rs 1,080, reflecting improved earnings visibility by way of FY28.

The brokerage mentioned manufacturing cuts in China and the probability of recent property-focused stimulus measures from Beijing ought to lend assist to world hot-rolled coil (HRC) costs. “We reiterate our bullish stance on the India metal sector, however the current moderation in metal costs, as each home and world tailwinds stay supportive,” Nomura mentioned.

China’s crude metal manufacturing fell 2% year-on-year within the first seven months of 2025, and Nomura expects extra aggressive curbs by way of the year-end, with output seemingly down about 9% year-on-year over August–December. In the meantime, the brokerage highlighted the weak state of China’s property sector however expects incremental stimulus on the Communist Get together’s October plenary session to offer a lift.

Robust home fundamentals

India’s metal trade, Nomura famous, continues to point out resilience. Crude metal manufacturing rose 9% year-on-year and obvious consumption elevated 8% within the first 4 months of FY26. The imposition of safeguard duties has reduce imports sharply—down 65% to 0.37 million tonnes in April–July 2025 from 0.99 million tonnes a yr earlier—easing pricing stress on native producers.

Regardless of seasonal weak spot leaving Indian HRC costs at a reduction to landed import prices, Nomura expects costs to climb round 5% above present spot ranges within the second half of FY26, aided by agency demand and tighter imports.

Inventory views

On JSW Metal, Nomura mentioned it expects regular earnings enlargement pushed by capability additions of seven million tonnes by FY28 and progress towards uncooked materials self-reliance. It reaffirmed its Purchase ranking and raised its goal to Rs 1,300, implying a 17% upside.For Jindal Metal, Nomura raised its goal to Rs 1,150, implying an 11% upside, citing upcoming capability additions of 6.3 million tonnes by FY27, improved product combine, and higher value efficiencies. Whereas it reduce near-term quantity and EBITDA estimates as a consequence of delays in commissioning new capability, the brokerage stays optimistic on medium-term progress, forecasting a 26% EBITDA CAGR between FY26 and FY28.“Sturdy consumption, import self-discipline, and enhancing pricing dynamics assist a constructive outlook for the sector,” Nomura mentioned.

Steel shares rose 1% on Tuesday after Nomura reaffirmed its optimistic outlook on India’s metal trade.

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