Is the Drop in Border Crossings Too Late to Assist Biden?

Migrants on the U.S.-Mexico border.
Photograph: Herika Martinez/AFP by way of Getty Pictures

There are two huge 2024 marketing campaign points regarding Joe Biden’s job efficiency which can be actually hurting his prospects for reelection: the economic system, and extra particularly inflation; and the surge in migrants crossing the border throughout his presidency. Polls constantly present Biden getting low marks on dealing with inflation (34.8 p.c approval in response to the RealClearPolitics polling averages) and immigration (33.5 p.c per RCP). Sadly for the president, these two considerations appear to be particularly salient in 2024.

Gallup routinely asks Individuals what they contemplate the “most vital downside going through the nation.” In its most up-to-date report on the finish of April, 30 p.c mentioned both “Economic system usually” or “Excessive Price of Dwelling/Inflation” had been the only largest downside, and one other 27 p.c named “Immigration.” This latter quantity has greater than doubled since final fall. That’s not stunning given the drumbeat of stories about excessive ranges of border crossings by migrants since Biden took workplace, and relentless Republican complaints on the topic, notably from Donald Trump, for whom immigration has lengthy been his signature subject.

So the newest statistics on border crossings, as reported by CBS Information, signify some actually excellent news for the forty sixth president:

Unlawful crossings alongside the U.S.-Mexico border in Could are down by greater than 50% in comparison with the file highs reported in December, giving the Biden administration an sudden reprieve throughout a time when migration has traditionally surged, in response to inner authorities knowledge obtained by CBS Information. … Could can be on observe to see the third consecutive month-over-month drop in illegal border crossings, the preliminary U.S. Division of Homeland Safety statistics present. In March and April, unlawful crossings alongside the southern border dropped to 137,000 and 129,000, respectively, in response to public authorities knowledge. If the pattern continues, Border Patrol is on tempo to file between 110,000 and 120,000 apprehensions in Could.

Biden administration officers concede that lots of this enchancment is attributable to a lot harder enforcement efforts by the Mexican authorities. However the drop in crossings is occurring on the identical time — coincidentally or not — that the administration is toughening its personal rhetoric on unlawful immigration, a pattern that actually started in February after congressional Republicans (reportedly at Trump’s insistence) rejected bipartisan border management laws.

The key political query is whether or not that is taking place too late to alter perceptions of Biden’s job efficiency on immigration and migration, which Republicans have a tendency to mix with complaints about (largely imaginary) spikes in crime right into a law-and-order pitch that treats Democrats as weak and feckless, or maybe even consciously lawless (that’s the guts of the “Nice Substitute Principle” which no much less a personage than Home Speaker Mike Johnson has echoed, arguing that Biden plans to undocumented immigrants into unlawful voters). In any case, inflation has considerably abated in 2024, however voters don’t appear inclined to present Biden a lot credit score for it, and even to tamp down their unhappiness with him over the excessive costs of meals, housing and gasoline. It’s additionally doable that immigration has merely turn out to be a difficulty (very like abortion for Republicans) the place Democrats have misplaced public belief and will not regain it for whereas. It hasn’t been that lengthy since immigration coverage divided Republicans and benefited Democrats, however these days appear to be gone for the speedy future.

Maybe the most effective factor Group Biden can hope for on immigration will not be an enormous enchancment in job efficiency assessments however a discount in salience, making it a difficulty that decides voting preferences for a much smaller phase of the citizens. If border crossings proceed to drop till election day, hyperbolic Republican claims that Biden has “opened the border” will start to ring hole, and Trump’s second-term plans to undertake an enormous armed deportation drive will start to sound as merciless as the previous president himself.