Bajaj Auto Q1 Outcomes Preview: Muted earnings seen amid flat volumes. 6 issues to maintain watch
The online revenue progress is seen in a variety of 4% and -4% in line with estimates of 4 brokerages specifically Axis Securities, Nuvama Institutional Equities, YES Securities and PhillipCapital (PC). Whereas Axis and PC see revenue after tax (PAT) taking place, Nuvama and YES count on an year-on-year progress within the quarter below evaluation.
Quantity progress stays flattish, whereas realizations are anticipated to indicate minor good points. Traders ought to intently watch the corporate’s commentary on demand outlook, export restoration, and new product pipeline.
1. PAT
– Axis Securities: Rs 1,969-2,049 cr, down 3.9% YoY and down 1% QoQ
– Nuvama: Rs 2,024 cr, up 2% YoY and down -1% QoQ
– YES Securities: Rs 2,064 cr, up 3.8% YoY and up 0.7% QoQ
– PhillipCapital: Rs 1,943 cr, down 2% YoY and down 5% QoQ
Weaker working efficiency is more likely to have a bearing on the corporate’s PAT. Margin compression is a key drag, though barely larger realizations and price controls might partially cushion the impression.
2. Income
– Axis Securities: Rs 12,276 crore, up 2.9% YoY and up 1.1% QoQ
– Nuvama: Rs 12,288 crore, up 3% YoY, up 1% QoQ
– YES Securities: 12,313 crore, up 3.2% YoY and 1.4% QoQ
– PhillipCapital: Rs 11,978 crore, flat YoY and down 1% QoQ
Axis Securities sees income uptick led by 1% YoY/QoQ improve in general volumes and a gentle enchancment in common promoting value (ASPs) on account of upper 2W and CV export volumes.
Quantity progress and higher realisation shall assist slight income progress YoY, echoes Nuvama.
Income progress is more likely to be modest, pushed by steady volumes and marginally larger common promoting costs (ASPs). Exports and premiumisation might support ASP progress.
3. EBITDA
– Axis Securities: Margin at 19.2%, down 101 bps YoY and 93 bps QoQ
– Nuvama: Rs 2,410 cr, flat YoY, down 2% YoY
– YES Securities: Rs 2,500 crore, up 3.5% YoY and a couple of% QoQ
– PhillipCapital: Rs 2,348 crore, down 3% YoY and down 4% QoQ
Axis attributed EBITDA margin drop to commodity inflation, forex-linked income, and OBD-2 norms impression being partly offset by richer product combine (larger exports) and price management efforts.
4. EBITDA margin
– Axis Securities: 19.2%, down 101 bps YoY and down 93 bps QoQ
– YES Securities: 20.3%, flat YoY and QoQ
– PhillipCapital: 19.6% (↓64 bps YoY, ↓57 bps QoQ)
– Nuvama expects EBITDA margin dip YoY attributable to decrease gross margin.
5. Quantity
Axis Securities has pegged volumes at 11,11,237 models, which can be up 0.8% YoY and up 0.8% QoQ.
Nuvama sees general volumes progress at 0.8% YoY and QoQ every at 11.1 lakh models, whereas realizations are anticipated to develop by 2.4% YoY and 0.6% QoQ at ~Rs 110.8k/unit.
Quantity progress is predicted to stay muted. Sequential progress in 3Ws is barely larger than 2Ws, however general quantity efficiency is basically flat.
6. Key monitorables
– Axis Securities: Export restoration, commodity price development, ASP combine
– Nuvama: Demand outlook, new product timelines
– YES Securities: Foreign exchange motion, 3W export efficiency, margin outlook
– PhillipCapital: Share of exports, commodity inflation, value discounting impression
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, ideas, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t signify the views of Financial Instances)
