Rs 2.5 lakh crore IPO growth in 2026 may create ‘liquidity drain’, says HDFC Securities; pegs Nifty at 28,720
Probably the most fast problem is the sheer scale of the IPO pipeline. Greater than 190 corporations are anticipated to faucet the first market in 2026, collectively searching for to lift over Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Such a heavy issuance calendar raises a elementary query: will the IPO rush find yourself killing the goose that laid the golden eggs? HDFC Securities flags the danger of a “liquidity drain” within the secondary market as capital is diverted in direction of new listings. With investor funds being absorbed by contemporary paper, buying and selling exercise and worth discovery in listed shares may come below stress.
Compounding this concern is the uncertainty round international investor flows. Even after a significant consolidation in 2025, Indian equities proceed to commerce at a premium to different rising markets comparable to China and Brazil. International institutional buyers pulled out almost Rs 3 lakh crore from Indian equities in 2025. Whereas there’s hope that flows may stabilize and even reverse in 2026, HDFC Securities cautions that a number of elements should still maintain international capital on the sidelines.
That stated, the broader world and home backdrop provides causes for guarded optimism. International commerce uncertainty is anticipated to progressively come down, aided by easing geopolitical tensions and the prospect of tariff reversals. Trump’s commerce insurance policies, which have been a significant supply of disruption, are anticipated to decrease additional as a dominant affect on the worldwide financial system. “Rising markets rotation is anticipated, with India as a key beneficiary,” it added.
Inside this framework, rising market rotation is anticipated, with India seen as a key beneficiary. China’s GDP progress is anticipated to stay secure, whereas crude oil costs are prone to keep subdued, easing stress on inflation and exterior balances. Central bankers’ sustained demand for gold is anticipated to maintain the metallic buoyant by way of 2026, reflecting lingering warning at the same time as progress stabilises.
India’s home macro story stays a key pillar of HDFC Securities’ outlook. Fee cuts, CRR reductions and liquidity infusion type a part of this supportive coverage combine. Structural home demand and a rising allocation of family financial savings in direction of equities proceed to offer a powerful inner cushion, probably lowering dependence on international flows.
Digital infrastructure enhancements and the speedy digitisation of funds are additionally highlighted as structural positives, creating new financial alternatives and enhancing effectivity throughout sectors. Towards this backdrop, nominal GDP progress is anticipated to enter double digits in 2026, setting the stage for an earnings restoration after a difficult interval.From a market perspective, valuations have corrected meaningfully, and international portfolio investor publicity is at traditionally low ranges. Collectively, these elements create upside potential if sentiment turns. HDFC Securities expects India’s markets to ship a “Goldilocks” final result, characterised by a broad-based restoration. Industrial metals are anticipated to shine, reflecting bettering world demand, whereas the rupee is projected to stay secure.
For FY27, Nifty earnings are anticipated to develop by 16%, translating into an anticipated annual return of about 11% for the index, pegging a yearly Nifty goal of 28,720.
(Disclaimer: The suggestions, ideas, views, and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t characterize the views of The Financial Occasions.)
